Preface -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Risk in Power Systems -- 1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment -- 1.3 Outline of the Book -- 2 Outage Models of System Components -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Models of Independent Outages -- 2.3 Models of Dependent Outages -- 2.4 Conclusions -- 3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data -- 3.3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data -- 3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components -- 3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution -- 3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test -- 3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models -- 3.8 Conclusions -- 4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Methods for Simple Systems -- 4.3 Methods for Complex Systems -- 4.4. Conclusions -- 5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems -- 5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems -- 5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations -- 5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems -- 5.6 Conclusions -- 6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning -- 6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach -- 6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative -- 6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria -- 6.6 Conclusions -- 7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning -- 7.3 Risk Evaluation Method -- 7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode -- 7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculations -- 7.6 Conclusions -- 8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Procedure for Reliability Planning -- 8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs -- 8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators.

8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant -- 8.6 Conclusions -- 9 Selection of Substation Configurations -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Load Curtailment Model -- 9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach -- 9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration -- 9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations -- 9.6 Conclusions -- 10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM -- 10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling -- 10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance -- 10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations -- 10.6 Conclusions -- 11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria -- 11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method -- 11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers -- 11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors -- 11.6 Conclusions -- 12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Basic Concept -- 12.3 Calculation Methods -- 12.4 Rate Design -- 12.5 Application Example -- 12.6 Conclusions -- 13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods -- 13.3 Procedure -- 13.4 Examples -- 13.5 Conclusions -- Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts -- A.1 Probability Calculation Rules -- A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution -- A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation -- A.4 Numerical Characteristics -- Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation -- B.1 General Concept -- B.2 Random Number Generators -- B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates -- B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation -- Appendix C Power-Flow Models -- C.1 AC Power-Flow Models -- C.2 DC Power-Flow Models -- Appendix D Optimization Algorithms -- D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming -- D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming.

Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables -- References -- Index -- About the Author.